FREE SIGNAL- BUY GBPUSD @

BUY GBPUSD @ 1.2272

SL @ 1.2232

TP @ 1.2352

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Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD tests...breaks... yesterday's highs

Week's high too.

The GBPUSD is testing - well just breaking - the highs from yesterday/the week. The 61.8% of the move down from the Feb 9th high to the Feb 14 low at the 1.25055 level. 

Earlier the pair moved above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (risk now - blue line at 1.24918). Yesterday, that MA was broken, but on the prior test on Feb 16th it stalled the rise.

The price has to remain above that MA now to keep the bulls in charge (risk for longs).  

The high from Feb 16 at 1.2522 is the next target. Then the 1.2543-48 where there were a number of swing highs on Feb 7.8 and Feb 14th (see yellow area and red circles).

Yesterday the pair stalled the fall right at support from the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (green line).  That MA was also near a cluster of support including the 100 day MA and old swing levels (lower yellow area).  

The question for this pair has -and continues to be - can the pair break the levels that have stalled rallies (and declines). It is a step by step process that can go either way.  So it is a bit hit or miss and the sentiment can turn around on a failure.  

To trade it, know your technical targets ahead. They are the hurdles to get to and through.  Also know the key levels in your rear view mirror.  They are the levels that need to hold to prevent a failure. 

From: ForexLive

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USDJPY tests the support area target.

Slow playing the level.

The USDJPY has moved even lower with the GBPUSD leading the way.  The USDJPY has followed more slowly.  "More slowly" because the pair is testing the 112.51-577 support area outlined in the prior post.  That level has been home to a number of swing lows/highs since Mid January.  

From: ForexLive

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EURUSD can't make much hay above the 200 hour MA level

Back down testing the 100 hour MA now

At the start of the the day, the EURUSD tested the 100, then pushed through. The 50% of the move down from last weeks high at 1.0586, and then the 200 hour MA at 1.0593 were the next targets. The price made it to and even through both.  The high reached 1.05948, but that was it.  We are now seeing a retest of the 100 hour MA at 1.05733.  The battle between the MA lines continues.  

The pairs test and break of the 200 hour MA above could not make any hay on that break.  So traders use the failure to take some profits and start the battle between the two MA levels.  

PS the range for the day is now 58 pips. The 22 day average is 79 pips. So there is room to go test 1.06079 area on a break higher (61.8% and near lows from Monday). 

PSS  A move below the 100 hour MA would be a disappointment for buyers.

From: ForexLive

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Forex Signal - BUY USDCAD

BUY USDCAD @ 1.3105

SL: 1.3058
TP1:1.3170
TP2: 1.3237

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Forex technical analysis. EURUSD rolling over but tests support. Trades at session lows

Tests the lows/retracement

The EURUSD is trading at new session lows at 1.0525. Looking at the daily chart, the 61.8% of the move up from the January low comes in at 1.0526. The low price from last week reached 1.05208. The swing low from back in November reached 1.05171. So there is cause for pause - at least from a technical perspective.  Fundamentally, the dollar is being supported by higher rates and a rising stock market which is helping the greenback, but this is a key area technically for the pair.  PS The EURUSD is the biggest mover today. 

If the price is to turn around from the support area, we will need to see the pair start to take back some levels from the trend like move lower today. The 100 bar MA on the 5-minute chart (blue line in the chart below) is currently at 1.0549 and moving lower. That MA was tested at the opening, and then near the start of the European trading session. A move above that MA would be a sign the sellers are being challenged by buyers at the support area. 

From ForexLive.

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Forex Signal - SELL NZDUSD

SELL NZDUSD @ 0.7165

SL: 0.7220
TP1:0.7071
TP2: 0.6990

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Forex Signal - SELL AUDUSD

SELL AUDUSD @ 0.7670

SL: 0.7730
TP1:0.7610
TP2: 0.7530

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Forex Signals - GBJPY Now

SELL GBPJPY @ 1.4125

SL: 1.4188
TP1:1.4025
TP2: 1.3880

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Forex technical analysis: EURJPY holds support. Waffles.

Do you like it?  Does it just waffle.

The EURJPY has been waffling back and forth over the last four trading days with the lows at 120.206 and the high at 121.314.  

Looking at this weeks trading price action, 

• Monday traded higher before fading down. 
• On Tuesday, the pair consolidated on the downside, and closed higher.  
• Today, the price has been up and down and up and down.  

Looking at the price action, we did move to new week highs today (above 121.160) but fell short of the high from Friday. That high stalled at the 50% of the move down from Jan 27 (at 121.314).  Sellers leaned on the test  

Today's lows stalled at the 100 hour MA (currently at 120.776 and moving higher).  We currently trade at 120.929. Buyers leaning against that support.  

The market is leaning against a key level above. 

The market today is leaning against an intermediate level

Technically, we can move either way.  A break below the 100 hour MA would be more bearish.   

Pick your spots.  Look for the momentum on any break.  

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AUDUSD takes out triple top on hourly...

The Feb high has kept below 0.7700 (0.6996). Trading above 0.7700 now

The AUDUSD is trading to new session highs and in the process is breaking above the triple top seen in February.   That ceiling stalled at the 0.7696 level. We are now trading above the 0.7700 level and trying to hold that level.

The pair is being helped by the other dollar selling. 

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, and NZDUSD are all at new dollar low levels for the day.  The USDCAD is the only major pair that is not trading at new day lows for the greenback.

Gold is up about $3 and trading at the highs for the day. The US stock market is still trading higher, but coming off the highs now.   Are we going to reverse those gains now?  S&P up 3. Nasdaq up 12. Dow up 67. 

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Forex technical analysis: Stronger data sends the dollar higher...

...and March more in play.

The stronger than expected economic data has sent the dollar higher and brings March more in play. US yields are up about  5 basis points now. Before the data, they were  up 1 BP.  The US stocks are lower with the Nasdaq down -9.0 and the S&P down about 4.5 points. The odds of Fed hike have move up to around 40% from 34% before the number.

The USDJPY has moved away from the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (at 114.36). The price is above topside trend line on the chart at 115.83, and is approaching the 50% of the move down from the Jan high at 115.09.  The high has reached 114.95 so far (is there option stuff at 115.00 - need to check Mike's orders).  The 115.83 is really close support.  On a move below that look for 115.65-72 to stall a correction.  A move below that area would be a head scratcher and muddy the technical waters.

The EURUSD is down testing the 61.8% of the move up from the Jan low at 1.0526. The low from NOvember came in at 1.0517.  The low has stalled at 1.05208 so far. A break below will start to look toward 1.0500 and then the 1.0451 low from Jan 11.  On a bounce watch the 1.0540-42 area to cap the correction. The low from earlier in the day was at that level and the 50% of the move down from the last leg lower (from 1.05604 to 1.0520) comes in at 1.05406.

The data is better. The Fed is more in play. The dollar is following accordingly.  

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Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD dipping below the 200 bar MA on 4-hour

The last break was a brief one..

The GBPUSD is falling below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at the 1.2392 level. This is the first time below the level since February 7th. Admittedly, on that day, the break could not find momentum and the market rebounded.

 

The pair is trying to break but the dollar buying has seen some slowing. The EURUSD has moved back above the London morning low (need to get back below the 1.0540 level now). The USDJPY is testing support early at 114.72 after not holding really close support at 114.83 trend line from the earlier post.  

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Forex technical analysis: EURUSD stalls fall near prior swing low level

Lows from Jan 26 and Jan 27 stall the fall

The EURUSD has trended lower in trading today. However, like the GBPUSD, the pair has reached a support area and has stalled the fall over the the last 6 or so hours. That support comes in at the 1.0656 level. The swing lows from Jan 26th (at 1.06569) and Jan 27th (at 1.06576) come in at that level. The low in trading today reached 1.06554. Close enough.

Drilling down to the  5-minute chart, the 100 bar MA has caught up to the price and the pair has been stalling near the MA line. The 50% of the last trend leg lower (started near the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart - see chart below) comes in at 1.06844. The high correction price peaked just above that level but came back off.

So sellers are staying in control, but a break below that floor at 1.0656 is a needed hurdle to get to and through (buyers are leaning against the level).  Stay below 100 bar MA/38.2% on the 5-minute at 1.0675 is the best case for the sellers. Stay below 1.06844 (50%) is still ok for sellers. A move back above that level, muddies the "trend lower" water though.  

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Forex technical analysis: USDJPY tests retracement support....again

Takes out lows from last week, but cannot take the next step.

The lows from last week at 112.069 and 112.045 were taken out in early NY trading BUT the 38.2% of the move up from the November Election Day low at 111.98 could not be breached.  That muddies the water for the sellers. You not only have the failure on breaking the two lows but the failure to get below the 38.2% is another failure. 

 

it is hard to give up on the shorts (the buyers are not exactly that strong of late). The price remains below the declining 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above).   On Friday, that MA was broken on the employment report but that move was quickly reversed and the next test held (on Friday PM).  The price is also below the double bottom from Jan 18 and Jan 24 at 1.1251-56.   

Looking at the 5- minute chart, the 50% of the day's trading range comes in at 112.375. We are testing that level. The 100 and 200 bar MA is ahead at 112.48. If the sellers are to remain in control, seeing sellers at these levels will be eyed.   We do need to get and stay below the 112.21 level and then the 111.98 level.  

So the battle is on.  You can argue it is a buy now with risk at 112.21 (close support) or 111.98. You can argue stay below 11148-56 and all is ok.  What do you think?

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Forex technical analysis: EURUSD tests Friday low....

The EURUSD fell in early NY trading and in the process tested the low from Friday AND the 1.0706 level. That level is of course the 38.2% of the move down from the Election Day high to the January low.  We have traded above and below that level mainly since Jan 23rd.  

The 61.8% of the move up form the Jan 30 low is at 1.0699. A move move that area (from 1.0699-1.0706) should be move bearish.  So far. trying to hold the line. 

Having said that the burden will be on the buyers today. They will likely lean against support BUT if the price does rebound, it should have a tough time against the 1.07239 area) and the 200 hour MA at 1.0740.  

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EURUSD testing the 100 day MA area

It is Friday - and moving toward the Friday London fixing (i.e. potential for fixing flows) -  but the EURUSD is testing that key MA level at the 1.0794 level. The price just printed 1.0797 and backed off a bit.  Yesterday, the price moved above that line and stayed above for 9 hours, before heading back lower. Earlier this week, there were little peeks above the MA line but no momentum.  

The move higher is a break back above the yellow area that was defined by a bunch of swing levels (now support). The low today stalled just above the 1..0706 level.  SO buyers have been more in control, BUT that 100 day MA remains a tough - and key level -  to get above if this pair is to push higher. 

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USDJPY comes down with stocks. Bond yields dip a little too

Overhead technical levels also help stall the rally.

The USDJPY did recover after the post ADP dip (see prior post), but did find the going tough at the overhead resistance targets (also see prior post).  

The high was able to breach the 50% retracement at 113.72 but stalled between the 200 hour MA (at 113.847) and the 100 hour MA (at 114.05). The high price reached 113.944.

The fall from the high has been helped by stalling stocks (S&P now negative). Bond yields are also off the highs. The 10 year yield is back below 2.5% after reaching 2.516%. It is not a disaster but the combination of factors, has pushed the USDJPY back lower.

Looking at the 5 minute chart, the price has stalled the decline against the 100 bar MA, trend line and the yellow area that has a number of swing lows./highs over the last few trading day.  Key support area now. A break below should be more bearish. 

GBPJPY and EURJPY are also moving lower. 

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A technical look at the crude oil futures

October contract

Today, crude oil is lower with the October contract trading at $46.69 area.  The price is down 2.91% on the the day. The low traded to $46.45.  

What are the technicals saying?

Looking at the daily chart, the price is currently trading under the 100 day MA  at the $46.95 level.   Last week the MA was breached to the upside, and the closes have been above that MA since that day.  The price yesterday dipped below the MA line, but found buyers.  A close below and staying below would be more bearish technically.  

What needs to be done to give the sellers move comfort is to get back below the $46.49 level. This is the midpoint of the move down from the June (year) high.  

When the price moved above the 100 day MA last week, it also moved above the 50% retracement level at roughly the same level. Today, those two technical levels are a bit wider apart (about $0.46). Today, one was broken but the 50% was quickly breached only to have the price move back above. 

So there is a battle going on. Will the sellers take more control and push lower or will the move below the 100 day MA be short lived.  

Drilling down into the hourly chart, is it showing any other technical clues?

Looking at it, the 200 hour MA held support in yesterday's trading. The price bounced. Today there was another test of the MA line and a more modest bounce (the price stayed below the 100 hour MA - currently at $47.95).  Subsequently, the 200 hour MA has been broken AND successfully tested (it is at $47.13). That is showing some interest by the sellers to put a  lid on the corrective rally off the 50% support on the daily chart.  

With the price below the 100 day MA at $46.95 and the 200 hour MA (currently at $47.13), the bears have taken more control from the buyers. Stay below and we should see the 50% level broken with the next targets at the $45.77 and $44.66 levels respectively. They represent the 38.2% and 50% of the move up from the August low.  Get below the month's midpoint and the see saw flips even further to the bearish side for oil.  

Key area. Bears more in control. We will see if they can keep it in the new trading day.

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Forex Signal- Good trade Now - GBP/JPY

BUY  GBP/JPY @ 1.3024

SL: 1.2950
TP1: 1.3100
TP2: 1.3190
TP3: 1.3250

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