Forex technical analysis: Stronger data sends the dollar higher...

...and March more in play.

The stronger than expected economic data has sent the dollar higher and brings March more in play. US yields are up about  5 basis points now. Before the data, they were  up 1 BP.  The US stocks are lower with the Nasdaq down -9.0 and the S&P down about 4.5 points. The odds of Fed hike have move up to around 40% from 34% before the number.

The USDJPY has moved away from the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (at 114.36). The price is above topside trend line on the chart at 115.83, and is approaching the 50% of the move down from the Jan high at 115.09.  The high has reached 114.95 so far (is there option stuff at 115.00 - need to check Mike's orders).  The 115.83 is really close support.  On a move below that look for 115.65-72 to stall a correction.  A move below that area would be a head scratcher and muddy the technical waters.

The EURUSD is down testing the 61.8% of the move up from the Jan low at 1.0526. The low from NOvember came in at 1.0517.  The low has stalled at 1.05208 so far. A break below will start to look toward 1.0500 and then the 1.0451 low from Jan 11.  On a bounce watch the 1.0540-42 area to cap the correction. The low from earlier in the day was at that level and the 50% of the move down from the last leg lower (from 1.05604 to 1.0520) comes in at 1.05406.

The data is better. The Fed is more in play. The dollar is following accordingly.