Forex technical analysis: USDJPY tests retracement support....again

Takes out lows from last week, but cannot take the next step.

The lows from last week at 112.069 and 112.045 were taken out in early NY trading BUT the 38.2% of the move up from the November Election Day low at 111.98 could not be breached.  That muddies the water for the sellers. You not only have the failure on breaking the two lows but the failure to get below the 38.2% is another failure. 

 

it is hard to give up on the shorts (the buyers are not exactly that strong of late). The price remains below the declining 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above).   On Friday, that MA was broken on the employment report but that move was quickly reversed and the next test held (on Friday PM).  The price is also below the double bottom from Jan 18 and Jan 24 at 1.1251-56.   

Looking at the 5- minute chart, the 50% of the day's trading range comes in at 112.375. We are testing that level. The 100 and 200 bar MA is ahead at 112.48. If the sellers are to remain in control, seeing sellers at these levels will be eyed.   We do need to get and stay below the 112.21 level and then the 111.98 level.  

So the battle is on.  You can argue it is a buy now with risk at 112.21 (close support) or 111.98. You can argue stay below 11148-56 and all is ok.  What do you think?