vendredi 29 mai 2020

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday accused a leading Senate Democrat of “hackery” for questioning whether Pompeo violated a law restricting officials’ political activities, saying an investigation found no evidence he had done so.

In a letter to Senator Bob Menendez, top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Pompeo also accused journalists of “slander” for reporting on the lawmaker’s request for the review by the U.S. Office of Special Counsel.

The agency investigates alleged breaches of the 1939 Hatch Act barring federal workers from engaging in political activities while acting in their official capacities.

Menendez in October asked the OSC to assess the legality of three official visits that Pompeo made to his home state of Kansas at a time that news reports said the Republican former congressman was mulling a U.S. Senate run.

The State Department on Thursday released a copy of Pompeo’s letter to Menendez. It also released a Jan. 21, 2020, letter to Pompeo from the OSC in which the agency said it found he was not “currently” a Senate candidate and there was “no evidence to conclude that you violated the Hatch Act.”

Pompeo wrote that Menendez appeared not to acknowledge that finding in a recent interview and that he wanted to make sure the lawmaker was aware of it.

“The OSC response to your hackery makes clear your continued effort to politicize legitimate and important diplomatic and national security activity was without merit,” Pompeo wrote.

Zachary Kurz, an OSC spokesman, said a copy of the letter had previously been sent to Menendez.

“Clearly the Secretary of State feels deeply disturbed by the ongoing oversight work of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee," Menendez said in a statement. "High-level temper tantrums will not stop the committee from conducting our oversight responsibilities."

Former U.S. officials question DOJ's probe of 'unmasking' of Trump ally

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By Mark Hosenball

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former U.S. intelligence officials questioned the Justice Department's naming of a prosecutor to probe the "unmasking" of names in spy-agency eavesdropping reports by Obama administration officials, saying such requests had not previously been treated as criminal matters.

Attorney General William Barr this week assigned a U.S. attorney in Texas, John Bash, to look into unmasking requests that revealed intercepted conversations between Michael Flynn, a former adviser to Republican President Donald Trump, and Russia's ambassador had been detailed in National Security Agency reports.

Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about those conversations, though the Justice Department this month moved to drop the charge against him, in what critics call a pattern of providing special treatment to Trump allies.

Key Trump supporters in the Senate, including Lindsey Graham (NYSE:GHM), have seized on unmasking disclosures to demand investigations into requests by aides to former President Barack Obama, months before Trump is expected to face Obama's vice president, Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in the November election.

"No one has ever been criminally prosecuted for unmasking. That would be tantamount to pursuing criminal charges against an intelligence analyst for merely doing his job," said Ned Price, a former CIA analyst who worked for Obama's National Security Council. "It's clearly an attempt to cast a patina of criminality around a routine practice," said Price, who is now a fellow at the New America Foundation and a lecturer at George Washington University.

Unmasking refers to the naming of a U.S. citizen whose identify was blacked out in an NSA report that captured their communications with a foreign national.

The Trump administration has requested far more unmaskings than Obama's did, according to statistics released last month by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Between September 2015 and August 2016, the figures show 9,217 total requested unmaskings by Obama administration members, compared with 16,721 in calendar year 2018 and 10,012 last year.

The report did not show how many unmaskings were requested in 2017, Trump's first year in office.

Recently declassified records made available to senators showed that Biden, former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and former CIA Director John Brennan, among others, requested limited unmaskings of reports that turned out to mention Flynn, who advised Trump's campaign and later served briefly as his national security adviser. The substance of such messages was not made public.

Justice Department spokeswoman Kerri Kupec said in an email that Bash had been tapped to conduct "a thorough review that takes into account any relevant context" surrounding the unmasking requests.

Senator Mark Warner, the Democratic vice chair of the intelligence committee, said the probe showed the DOJ was "wielding the power to criminally investigate political enemies of the president in a way that is exceedingly dangerous."

Stewart Baker, a former NSA general counsel who also served in Republican President George W. Bush's administration, said unmasking requests could be illegal if they had a clear political motivation.

"If the intelligence was properly gathered but read by someone with two motives, one legit and one not, I don’t expect a prosecution," said Baker, who is currently of counsel to law firm Steptoe. "But I am not prepared to say that the DOJ inquiry is presumptively improper."

However, Robert Litt, who served in the Obama administration as chief lawyer to the director of National Intelligence and is now of counsel to Morrison Foerster, said: "I can't think of what the possible criminal violation might be, unless they are going to gin up some sort of conspiracy to defraud the United States."

Biden losing economic argument to Trump as U.S. begins to re-open

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By James Oliphant and Trevor Hunnicutt

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is trusted more than Democratic nominee Joe Biden to handle the economy, polls show, even with more than 40 million Americans filing jobless claims and growth stalled due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Some Biden supporters fear that vulnerability could intensify if Trump becomes the face of an economic recovery as the country re-opens after shutdowns, giving the Republican president's re-election prospects a boost when he needs it most.

Biden is expected to release a large-scale recovery plan in the coming weeks. Democrats are watching closely to see if his message matches the moment, saying the party's presumptive nominee needs to ramp up criticism of Trump's response to the pandemic and show leadership for moving forward.

Biden, who has held online events from home during the shutdown, "stayed in his basement and did the proper thing, but now it's different," said a leading Democrat in Michigan's Macomb County, a suburban Detroit county critical to Biden's hopes of taking the state back after Trump's 2016 win there.

Biden should be out in communities across the country demonstrating how to reopen businesses while following public health guidance, said the Democrat, who asked not to be named in order to speak candidly. "He needs to show what life is going to be like and how we are going to do it."

Trump has staked his political future on the economy, pushing a return to normal as U.S. deaths from COVID-19 topped 100,000 nationwide. Biden has preached caution, endorsing a phased re-opening approach but saying this week the country could not fully revert until there is a vaccine.

Though the former vice president has an edge on Trump in overall support ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Reuters/Ipsos polling this week showed Trump with a 42% to 34% lead over Biden in terms of which candidate was trusted more on the economy.

Americans were split between who has a better plan for a national recovery: 37% favored Biden while 35% favored Trump.

An improving economy could play to Trump's strengths, said Ian Sams, an adviser at Navigator, a polling organization.

To better compete, Biden "must put Trump's mismanagement of the economic fallout of the coronavirus on the front burner," said Sams, who was a spokesman for Senator Kamala Harris' 2020 Democratic presidential campaign.

Democrats should amplify concerns about whether unemployed workers and small businesses have been given enough help, he added.

RE-OPENING PLANS DICTATED BY HEALTH

A spokesman for Biden's campaign, TJ Ducklo, said Biden "has and will continue to make the clear case for an economic recovery that makes rebuilding a stronger, more inclusive middle class the centerpiece."

Biden has said he supports establishing a new jobs corps to employ people who are out of work in contact tracing investigations of the disease's spread. Such moves would boost economic growth, he said.

He also said he has solicited governors for input on their re-opening approaches and his economic recovery plans.

A Biden adviser said re-opening should be dictated by public health concerns and that phased approaches being done by most states make sense.

"From an economic standpoint, the worst-case scenario would be opening up and having to shut down again," the adviser said.

Economists see a recovery beginning in the third quarter, with job gains expected at more than 2 million, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey. But those forecasters still see a double-digit unemployment rate by the November election.

"The unemployment rate will probably be falling relatively quickly later this year and next year, but it's still going to be at a very high level," the Biden adviser said.

"This is going to be the political argument in the fall: Biden pointing to levels, and Trump pointing to trends."

Another prominent Michigan Democrat, Vaughn Derderian, the chair of the Oakland County Democratic Party, worries a rosier economy will benefit Trump. But he said there is little Biden can do now given the uncertainty ahead.

"It's not that we don't want to reopen the economy," Derderian said. "We don't know what it means to reopen the economy safely."

North Carolina Democrats 'dragging their feet' on convention rules, RNC chief says

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By Jarrett Renshaw

(Reuters) - The head of the Republican National Committee accused North Carolina's Democratic governor on Friday of delaying issuing guidelines for the party's national convention in Charlotte, and warned that organizers are prepared to choose another location soon.

The comments by RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel on a popular North Carolina radio show came a day after her letter to Governor Roy Cooper setting a June 3 deadline to approve safety and logistical measures - such as how many people can gather together - to prevent the spread of the coronavirus during the August convention.

Cooper's office responded by asking the RNC to spell out how many people will attend each night and how they will adhere to social distancing and other protocols, such as mask coverings.

"North Carolina will continue working with the RNC to ensure the convention can be held safely," said Cooper's spokesperson, Sadie Weiner.

The governor's office also pointed to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's guidelines, which suggest postponing large gatherings of more than 250 people.

President Donald Trump has pressured Democratic leaders in the state to let him hold a traditional convention, but state officials are asking the party to submit detailed plans before they make a determination.

Republicans want Cooper to provide ground rules for the convention, setting him up as a potential villain if they choose another location.

"It’s starting to feel like they are dragging their feet and they don't want to give us their guidelines," McDaniel told former state Governor Pat McCrory on his radio show. "We are hoping to make it work but we are not going to wait indefinitely."

Cooper's office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

McDaniel suggested the delay is purposeful in an effort to leave the party with no other option. Republicans have agreed to several safety measures, such as health questionnaires and thermal scans for fever, she said.

The party entered a contract two years ago with officials in North Carolina to hold the convention, a huge gathering that would bring thousands of delegates, alternates, journalists and other attendees to the state's hotels and restaurants over a four-day period.

Democrats want interviews with Trump admin officials over watchdog firing

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Democratic lawmakers said on Friday they want to conduct closed-door interviews with officials from President Donald Trump's administration about the surprise firing of State Department Inspector General Steve Linick, and release transcripts to the public.

Representatives Eliot Engel, chairman of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee; Carolyn Maloney, chairwoman of the House Oversight Committee; and Senator Bob Menendez, ranking Democrat on Senate Foreign Relations, said they were expanding an investigation of Linick's May 15 dismissal.

The lawmakers said Linick's office was working on at least two investigations related to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's actions when Pompeo recommended that the Republican president fire him.

Linick was the fourth government inspector general Trump has ousted in recent weeks, which prompted concern from lawmakers, including some of his fellow Republicans, about whether officials charged with preventing fraud and abuse would be able to do their work.

A State Department spokesperson responded that the department is "carefully reviewing" requests for information and committed to engaging in good faith discussions on those requests.

Pompeo has said Linick should have been fired some time ago and rejected claims his decision was motivated by political retaliation.

Trump ex-adviser Flynn asked Russia to avoid 'tit-for-tat,' new transcript shows

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By Mark Hosenball

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's former adviser Michael Flynn asked Russia's ambassador to help avoid an escalation in diplomatic sanctions during a call between Trump's election and inauguration, a transcript released on Friday showed.

Trump's newly confirmed spy chief, John Ratcliffe, declassified the transcript of the conversation between Flynn and Russian ambassador to Washington Sergey Kislyak and released them to Congress in one of his first official actions in his new role.

The move comes amid a legal fight over the fate of Flynn, who admitted lying to the FBI about the conversation. The Justice Department in a bombshell early this month moved to dismiss the charge Flynn had already pleaded guilty to, following public urging by Trump and his allies.

The transcript shows a key discussion item between Flynn and Kislyak was a move by the administration of President Barack Obama to penalize Russia in response to findings by U.S. spy agencies that Moscow interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election through hacking and propaganda operations.

"I know you have to have some sort of action - to, to only make it reciprocal. Make it reciprocal," Flynn said, according to the transcript.

"Don't - don't make it - don't go any further than you have to," Flynn added. "Because I don't want us to get into something that has to escalate, on a, you know, on a tit for tat. You follow me, Ambassador?"

The transcript is dated Dec. 29, 2016 - the day the Obama administration announced it was expelling 35 alleged Russian intelligence operatives from the United States.

Trump has long bristled at U.S. intelligence agencies' assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 election.

Florida governor asks court to stay felon voting ruling

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By Simon Lewis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis gave notice on Friday that he will appeal a federal judge's decision on voting rights for felons, while asking for a stay on the ruling that appeared to clear the way for hundreds of thousands of citizens to vote in a crucial 2020 state.

The law in question, introduced by the state's Republican-controlled Senate last year, requires convicted felons in Florida to pay any court costs, fines, fees and restitution to victims before their right to vote could be restored.

Opponents argue the law goes against the wishes of Florida voters who approved an amendment to the state's constitution in 2018 to grant voting rights to felons who served their time and were not convicted of murder or sex crimes.

A group of Floridians and voting rights organizations last June sued DeSantis, a Republican and an ally of President Donald Trump, arguing the law amounts to an illegal poll tax.

U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle said in the ruling on Sunday that the law amounts to an “unconstitutional pay-to-vote system" and ordered that felons could not be prevented from voting because of financial obligations they were unable to pay.

DeSantis argued in a motion filed on Friday that the ruling should not be implemented until an appeal is settled because it was in "conflict with binding precedent" and was likely to be revisited on appeal.

The motion said the state would also request an "expedited" appeal before a full bench of judges on the 11th Circuit, arguing that if the court does not agree to grant a stay, "ineligible" voters may be able to cast votes in upcoming primary elections in August.

Trump, who defeated Hillary Clinton in Florida by fewer than 114,000 votes, or 1.2 percentage points, in the 2016 presidential election, is expected to face former Vice President Joe Biden in a Nov. 3 election.

At least 775,000 felons in Florida had unpaid financial obligations resulting from their sentences and could be ineligible to vote if the ruling is overturned, according to expert evidence submitted at trial.

House Democrats launch inquiry into Medicare stimulus payouts


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By Sarah N. Lynch and Marisa Taylor

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two U.S. House of Representatives Democrats on Friday launched an inquiry into whether the Health and Human Services Department misdirected billions of dollars in coronavirus stimulus money to healthcare providers facing criminal or civil fraud investigations.

In a letter to Secretary Alexander Azar, Representatives Lloyd Doggett and Katie Porter accused the department of evading questions about how it decided to dole out $50 billion for its provider relief fund and demanded answers about how the funds will be clawed back from possible fraudsters.

Reuters reported exclusively this month that HHS had sent Medicare providers under criminal and civil investigations stimulus money, after it direct-deposited $30 billion into the bank accounts of any medical provider who billed Medicare for services in 2019.

Doggett and Porter cited Reuters' reporting in their letter.

"Funds meant for frontliners went to hospitals previously closed, mega-corporations, and possible fraudsters," Doggett said in a statement. "The Trump Administration should immediately provide a full accounting of how these millions landed, as they so often do with this Administration, in the pockets of corporate interests and those under investigation for fraud."

An HHS spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the letter.

Reuters could not determine what portion of the recipients are facing such inquiries.

After sending the funds, HHS asked all the providers to sign a lengthy attestation that stipulates they have been or will be treating patients suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

Those who do not respond by HHS' deadline will be assumed to have accepted the terms and conditions.

HHS previously told Reuters it has mechanisms in place to recoup the funds and address fraud.

samedi 23 mai 2020

With some experience, a trader will understand that it’s possible to improve his/her trading results not only through market analysis but also with the help of other techniques. In particular, it’s possible to manage the size of an open position in order to limit risks and increase profit. Are you interested? Then let’s get into it.

Scaling in a trade

Scaling in implies increasing a trade that already shows a profit. It’s very useful in times when you think that a new trend may start but you aren’t really sure and want to reduce your risk exposure. This approach is also sometimes referred to as “pyramiding”.

Scaling in will reduce your risk only if you open a smaller trade than you usually do according to your money management rules. In other words, scaling in implies entering a trade in pieces. You will also need to choose in advance the levels at which you will add to your position.

Notice that you can only add to a position by opening a new order at the current market price. So, while we logically see it as “adding to a trade”, scaling in actually means that you make multiple positions in the same direction at different predetermined price levels (once the price arrives at these levels).

Example

scaling in.png

Let’s imagine that you wanted to buy EUR/USD at 1.09 targeting 1.11 but didn’t feel sure about this trade. To reduce your risks, you decided to scale in: you broke your usual trade size (for example, 1 lot) in 4 parts (0.25 lots each) and defined levels at which you would open new buy trades (in this case, the trade was increased simply every 50 pips).

You can use different tools to determine the levels at which you will add to your trade: Fibonacci, pivot points, key previous highs, and lows, etc.

Scaling in protects you in case of unfortunate events. If you opened the entire 1-lot buy trade at 1.09 and then the market reversed down, your loss would have been 4 times bigger than the loss you would have if you opened a 0.25-lot trade. At the same time, if you didn’t open this trade at all and the price did really go up, you would have missed a chance to join a trend at the earliest stage.   

It would be wise to trail your stop loss after the price each time you add a new position so that you never risk more than you have decided to risk in one trade.

Notice that scaling in is not recommended for range-bound markets or periods when the price tends to make sharp movements back and forth. Scaling in is more suitable for trend and breakout trading.

All in all, scaling in helps to reduce the risks while increasing profit. This is a very good combo from the risk management point of view. Still, try not to get carried away: it’s not wise to scale in every profitable trade. Remember that the decision to scale in has to be made in advance before you open a trade. If you didn’t think that through or considered that it could be necessary at the time, then treat such trade like a usual one and don’t try to add to it.

Scaling out of a trade

Scaling out implies partial closing of a profitable trade. Why would anyone need to close a trade that’s showing a profit?

Imagine that you ride the trend for some time. The longer the trend unfolds, the greater the risk that it will end. At the same time, it’s in your interest to ride the trend as long as possible before the market reverses.

This is where scaling out will help: by closing a part of your position, you thus reduce your risks in case of a reversal. At the same point, you retain the opportunity to keep the trade open and if the trend continues you will gain more than you would have if you closed the trade earlier.

The good option is to combine scaling out of a trade with moving a Stop Loss order to breakeven point. It’s better to explain this on an example.

Example

scaling out.png

You opened a buy trade at 1.1830 targeting a move up at least to the 1.1900 area with a Stop Loss at 1.1800. When the price reached 1.1900 it continued going up. That gave you an idea to scale out of this trade. You decided to close ¼ of the position and move your stop loss to the breakeven point (1.1830). This way if the market didn’t continue going up you would secure a small gain and lost nothing if the SL got hit.

However, it the price went up in line with your expectations, you would have a chance to take profit for another ¼ of the position at 1.1950 and then at 1.20 before the final part of your trade would be closed at 1.2050. Thus, you would have traded a big trend without risking anything after your SL was moved up to the no-loss level.  

Scaling out can be used as you trade trends or breakouts when the price is moving fast in one direction and you are not sure whether the volatility will keep propelling the market or make it reverse. There’s no point to scale out if you trade in a range.

In order to partially close a trade in MT4, go to the ‘Trade’ tab in the ‘Terminal’. Double click on the trade you wish to modify. An order window will appear. In ‘Volume’, type in the amount you wish to close or select from the drop-down menu. Click the yellow ‘Close #..’ button. Once done, you will receive a confirmation for the portion closed.

These were the safe and efficient methods of managing your position size. Next, we will explain the techniques that are not so safe and thus can lead to bad outcomes: forewarned is forearmed.

Averaging down and martingale

Averaging down means increasing a losing trade. Some traders do that in hope that the price will reverse and adding to the trade will allow them to enter the market at better levels. Beware that losses always make traders feel the strain of stress. That can cloud judgment and lead to all kinds of bad decisions. We recommend you to stay away from these tactics and increase only winning trades.

Martingale is a notorious type of cost-averaging strategies that came from the world of gambling. The core idea is very simple: you double your position size after every losing trade so that you recoup losses and more if a winning trade occurs.

The strategy is supposed to be suitable for systems where the chance of winning is equal to the chance of losing — for example, when you toss a coin. However, if you decide to use this strategy for currency trading, your risk exposure will actually be very high.

For instance, if you make wrong bets during a trend, the martingale approach can wipe up your entire deposit. Imagine that you have $100. If you lose $5 in your first trade, it will take 4 losses in a row (-$5, -$10, -$20, -$40) for you to lose your deposit. As you will have only $25 left after such trades, you won’t be able to continue martingale and attempt to finally make the winning trade that will make up for the lost money. Add here the fact that if you use big leverage, even small price movements against you will let you bear big losses. As a result, martingale can be used only by very experienced and confident traders who have a large amount of capital.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (IKH) or simply Ichimoku is a very useful and informative technical indicator. It’s name is translated from Japanese as a “glance at a chart in equilibrium”. The idea is that you will learn everything you need to know about the state of the market with just one sight on a chart containing this indicator.

The Ichimoku indicator performs several important tasks. It:

  • marks the direction of the dominant trend;
  • shows momentum and strength of a trend;
  • provides reliable support and resistance levels;
  • gives trade signals.

At first, this indicator may look intimidating but when you know it you will find it rather simple and invaluable in market analysis.

In the following tutorial, we will tell you about the elements of Ichimoku and the signals they produce. We will explain how to analyze the market with this technical tool.

The elements of Ichimoku

 The indicator is based on moving averages which have some modifications. Its lines have traditional Japanese names as well as conventional modern ones.

Modifications of Ichimoku indicator

Have a look at the example of the Ichimoku indicator on the chart. We can distinguish the 3 layers — the past, the present, and the future.

3 layers of Ichimoku indicator on the candlestick chart

'Present' of Ichimoku indicator

Let’s start with the so-called “present”. It’s characterized by 2 lines — Kijun and Tenkan. Of these two, Kijun (the base line) is a moving average with a bigger period. As a result, it measures medium-term momentum and has more weight than Tenkan. The price crosses Tenkan more often than Kijun, and if the price does cross Kijun, it signals changes in the market.  

'Future' 

Thefuture is represented by the Ichimoku Cloud. The cloud is formed by the 2 moving averages which are shifted forward. If the moving average with the bigger period (Senkou Span B) is below the moving average with a smaller period (Senkou Span A), the Cloud is considered bullish. Its color is usually light. If Senkou Span B is above Senkou Span A, the Cloud is considered bearish. Such Cloud often has a darker color. Bullish Cloud means that buyers dominate the market, while bearish Cloud shows that sellers are in control. You can see that the Cloud changes color from time to time reflecting the shifts of power from bulls to bears and back. The width of the Cloud matters: the wider the bearish Cloud, the stronger are the sellers. To understand the current power balance of the market, look at the part of the Cloud that is “in the future”, i.e. to the right of the current price. As for the part of Cloud, which is aligned with the current prices, it acts as support and resistance for the price.    

'Past'

In the “past”, there’s a single line called Chinkou Span. Unlike the other Ichimoku lines, it’s not a moving average, but simply a price chart moved a number of periods back so that it lags behind the market. The way this line interacts with the price chart itself offers hints for traders.     

Why are some elements of the indicator switched forward and some are placed backward? Firstly, it would be very difficult to read the chart if all the 5 lines were in the same area. In addition, this way the elements of Ichimoku indicator produce trade signals. The following tutorial will show you how to interpret these signals.

How to implement Ichimoku

To apply Ichimoku to a chart in Metatrader, click “Insert”, choose “Indicators”, and pick “Custom”, then “Ichimoku”. In the settings, you can choose values for Tenkan, Kijun and Senkou Span B. You can also adjust the colors the indicator’s lines according to your preferences.

Ichimoku in Metatrader

The default settings 9-26-52 are the original parameters proposed by the indicator’s developer. They are popular among traders and can be used on any timeframe. At the same time, you are also free to adjust the default settings. The key thing is to choose the increasing values so that the figure for Tenkan-sen is the smallest and the value for Senkou Span B is the biggest.

Trading with Ichimoku

The position of Ichimoku lines can give traders a clear view of the existing trends. When the market is sideways, the indicator lines are horizontal so that the price is fluctuating around them. The Cloud is thin and changes its color often.

If the price is above the Cloud, Tenkan and Kijun and the bullish Cloud is solid, it’s an uptrend. Chinkou Span will be above the price in this case. 

If the price is below the Cloud, Tenkan and Kijun and the bearish Cloud is solid, it’s a downtrend. Chinkou Span will be below the price in this case. 

Ichimoku: range, uptrend, downtrend

The Ichimoku lines produce trade signals by crossing each other and the price, that why there are many different signals in the table below. Notice that when a new trend starts, signals from different elements of the indicator tend to appear around the same time and point in one direction.

 A lot of signals generated Ichimoku

Let’s review an example of how Ichimoku provides trade signals.

Ichimoku trade signals on the chart

1 - The price went below Kijun-sen. It’s a first bearish signal.

2 - Tenkan-sen fell below Kijin-sen. 

3 - Chinkou Span crossed the price chart to the downside.

4 - The price broke below the Ichimoku Cloud.

5 - The Cloud switched from bullish to bearish.

The signals 2-4 appeared around the same time and signaled the start of a bearish trend. They point at the opportunity to open a sell trade. The lines of the indicator then acted as resistance for the price.

6 - Chinkou Span broke back above the price chart. It’s possible to take profit from a short position. 

7 - The price went above Kijun-sen.

8 - Tenkan-sen went above Kijun-sen.

9 - The thick bearish Ichimoku Cloud acted as resistance for the price but it finally managed to break in.

10 - The Cloud switched from bearish to bullish. The price went above the Cloud. There are indications of an emerging uptrend, although, given the fact that Chinkou Span corrected to the price chart, there may also be a sideways trend for some time. 

 Conclusion

 The Ichimoku indicator represents a complete trading system. It’s possible to use just this indicator for trading. You can use it to identify trends, check for support and resistance levels as well as get entry signals. You can customize the indicator’s settings and use it together with other tools of technical analysis.

A gap is an empty space within a price chart between the two neighboring candlesticks.

Gaps occur when the following candlestick opens at a distance from the previous candlestick closing price. This may happen if the market’s view of the price rapidly changes and there’s a sudden influx of buy/sell orders. At some point, the price which was at the closing of a candlestick is no more interesting for traders and the new price of the following candlestick better represents the value of an asset (a currency pair).

In Japanese technical analysis gaps are referred to as “windows”.

Here are the main types of gaps:

1. Breakaway gaps

Breakaway gaps occur at the end of a price pattern and signal the beginning of a new trend. Such gaps appear when the price is testing a level on the chart – support, resistance, trend line, trend channel etc. The price suddenly gaps through the tested level and then starts a new trend in the direction of the breakout. It’s easy to spot breakaway gaps on the chart. Their other advantage is that by spotting ing such gap a trader can join a new trend at the earliest stage.

Breakaway gap chart

2. Continuation gaps

Continuation gaps happen in the middle of a price pattern and signal a rush of buyers or sellers who think that the price will continue going in the same direction. In other words, if you see a bullish gap during an uptrend, then you have a bullish continuation gap in the price chart. If a trend is bearish and a bearish gap is formed, it’s bearish continuation gap.

Continuation gap

3. Exhaustion gaps

Exhaustion gaps take place near the end of a price pattern and signal a final attempt to hit new highs or lows. During these time, the last portion of market players joins the trend and there will be no one to support this trend after that. As a result, an exhaustion gap is followed by a reversal in price action. It’s possible to take an exhaustion gap for a continuation one. To make the right distinction between these two types of gaps, have a look at the size of candlesticks: if a currency pair is very volatile, candlesticks on the chart are big and the price made several jerking moves, it might be an exhaustion gap.

Exhaustion gaps

Besides the types of gaps mentioned above, it’s also possible to see common gaps. By this term, we mean gaps that can’t be placed in a price pattern and simply represent an area where the price has gapped.

Weekend gaps

A specific type of gaps takes place after weekends. As you know, the Forex market is not very active on Saturday and Sunday, so the main currency trading ends on Friday and starts on Sunday night with the beginning of the Asia-Pacific trading session. Yet, important events may happen during the time the market is standing still. The news may include a great number of things from political announcements and interviews to natural disasters. As a result, a great number of trading orders is accumulated before the opening of the market. These orders are not met with counter orders. As there’s no demand/supply, market players have to open positions for the prices that are higher/lower than the prices seen on Friday evening. You can easily spot weekly gaps on M1-H4 timeframes. Sometimes, when there really are some big news during the weekend, an opening gap can be very wide.

Retracements

Usually, a correction tests one of the Fibonacci levels of the previous wave. The most common levels are 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786. The last one is √0.618, which quite often turns out to be a useful level. As we already know for the previous article, there's such a thing like alternation, which means there's a special relationship between waves two and four of an impulse. One of these corrections could be sharp, and another one expresses itself in a sideways shape. At this point, we could use Fibonacci levels as a helpful tool, so let's examine some examples.

The chart below represents a classic relation between the second and fourth waves. Wave ((ii)) reached the 0.618 level while wave ((iv)) achieved just the 0.382 level of the wave ((iii)). In most cases, the second wave is deeper in relation to the preceding wave than the fourth wave. Thus, in most cases, we should watch the 0.618 level as the main target for the second wave, but there're always some exceptions and these guidelines are not written in stone.

a classic relation between the second and fourth waves

As mention above, the 0.786 level could also be a target. The next chart shows the case exactly. Wave ((ii)) and then wave (ii) finished on the 0.786 levels and both of them were a departure point for a bearish wave. At the same time, both waves (iv) and ((iv)) retraced only 0.236 of the previously formed third wave. So, that's another example of how alternation works.

Which level we should pick as a target

Even though the 0.618 level is the primary target for wave two, we should watch a structure of the correction as well. So, we should only consider wave two as ended when we have two factors on board such a finished correction structure and a pullback from one of the Fibonacci levels. This approach reduces the risks of premature opening trades and losses as consequences of that.

Let’s have a look at wave ((iv)), which took the form of a triangle. The ending of this pattern tested the 0.236 level, which kicked off a downward five-wave rally. This shows that we should match the ending of a triangle and the Fibonacci levels, but not the internal parts of the pattern.

wave, which took the form of a triangle

If a rally is that strong, waves two could be weak. The next chart represents this case. Both waves (ii) and ii reached just the 0.382 levels and the market continued rising. Again, it's all about the form. If we have a three-waves price movement, which we could consider as a complete correction, and then a pullback from the 0.382 level happens, then it could be enough for wave two. On the other hand, we should remember about the possibility to have a more prolonged correction as a double zigzag. Thus, whatever pattern or pullback you see, there's always no reason to forget about the risk management.

If a rally is that strong, waves two could be weak

Sometimes, wave two balances between the 0.5 and 0.618 levels. If there is a couple of pullbacks from these levels, that brings more evidence that's wave two is about to end. Also, during extension, it's common to have relatively small wave two. As you can see on the chart below, wave (ii) ended on the 0.236 level as well as wave (iv). That's more common on the stock market, where we could have rallies like a rocket quite often, so in moments like that, the price simply has no time for deeper corrections.

chart wave (ii) ended on the 0.236 level as well as wave (iv)

Fibonacci Extensions of Motive Waves (Multiples)

We can use the Fibonacci Extension tool to predict the length of waves three and five. The most common target to the third wave is the 1.618 multiple of the first wave. The fifth wave tends to reach the 0.618 multiple of the third wave. Such classic relations you can see on the next chart.

wave tends chart

Sometimes, an extension in the third wave turns out to be so long and in this case, we should watch 2.618, 2 and 3.618 levels as possible targets. As you can see on the chart below, wave 3 finished between the 2.618 and 3.618 levels. Again, it all depends on the wave structure. Thus, if the third wave reached the 1.618 level, but there's no finished five-wave price movement, then it'll be logical to watch the next levels as a target.

chart wave 3 finished between the 2.618 and 3.618 levels

From time to time, 1 and 2 multiples are also could be useful. Wave (iii) of ((a)) on the next chart finished at 1 level, while wave (iii) of ((c)) achieved the 2 multiple levels. In both cases, the inner structure of these third waves was helpful to recognize a possible ending of these impulses.

Also, let's have a look at waves (i) and (v) of ((c)), which are equal. Usually, this happens if the third wave is more than 1.618 multiple, but again we should rely on the wave's structure first.

equal waves (i) and (v) of ((c))

The Bottom Line

 The Fibonacci relations are the core part of the Elliott Wave Principle. The structure of a developing wave could point out the appropriate Fibo level as a target, so we should always try to match the ongoing wave and the nearest level to achieve the best results.

There’re rules and guidelines in the Elliott Wave Theory. You must follow all the rules we went through in the previous articles, but the guidelines are not written in stone. In other words, guidelines not always appear but they are in a sufficient number of cases, so we shouldn’t ignore them.

What is Alternation?

Simply put, an alternation is about expecting some difference of similar waves’ expression inside a pattern by depth, complexity, and duration. Alternation happens inside impulses and corrections. Let’s see some examples.

Alternation in Impulses

Usually, there’s a relation between waves two and four in an impulse. There’s an upward impulse on the next chart. Wave (ii) of this impulse is sharp, but wave (iv) moves sideways. So, that’s how alternation works in impulses, which have two corrections inside – waves two and four. If alternation occurs, then if one correction has direction, the other one hasn’t got one.

Also, the wave (ii) is pretty easy here, but the wave (iv) has more waves inside, so there’s another alternation by complexity.

There’s an upward impulse on the next chart

The chart below shows two alternations. Inside the wave (iii) we have sharp wave ii, so, as you can guess, wave (iv) is sideways. Another example is in wave iii, its wave two moves sideways and the wave four is sharp, so the order has changed. That’s also a kind of alternation when you face such a successive changing in a shape in waves two and four.

The chart two alternations

Alternation in Triangles

Waves inside corrections subdivide into Simple, Complex and Most Complex. Inside triangles, one of the waves tends to be the most complex. As you can see on the chart below, wave B has the most complex structure while other waves are Simple or Complex.

Alternation in Triangles candlestick chart

Alternation in Zigzags

Sometimes one of zigzag’s waves has more complex structure than others. The next chart represents a case with a complex wave ((c)) in a relation to waves ((a)) and ((b)). However, if you face with a simple wave A and a complex wave B, then likely a wave C will be a simple one as well as the wave A.

a complex wave on the chart

Alternation in Double Zigzags

Waves of double zigzag could also express some difference from each other. Let’s have a look at the chart below. The wave (w) is simple, the wave (x) is complex and the wave (y) is the most complex. Thus, if we have quite easy waves W and X of a double zigzag, we shouldn’t rule out a possibility of complexness of the wave Y.

Double Zigzags chart

Alternation in Flats

The consistency ‘Simple-Complex-Most Complex’ could also apply to flats. The next chart shows a case with the most complex wave C. At the same time, wave B could be the most complex while a massive rally in wave C expresses itself as a simple wave. The chart with alternation in Flats

The Bottom Line

Alternation is one of the most useful guidelines, which helps us to understand which style of a wave we could face with in the next markets’ stages. It’s not a direct rule, but a very powerful additional tool to improve wave counts.

Triangles are a correction five-wave pattern (marked as A-B-C-D-E), which is divided into five types. This pattern is formed in a position prior to the final wave in an impulse or a correction. For example, a triangle could be formed in a wave four in an impulse or wave B in a zigzag.

Also, this pattern occurs in final wave X in a double/triple zigzag or three patterns.

  • Wave two of an impulse can’t be a triangle.
  • Waves A, B and C are usually zigzags, double zigzags, triple zigzags (that’s rare), double and triple threes.
  • Waves D and E could be triangles themselves. 

Triangle’s classification

On the next picture, you can find all types of triangles (Horizontal, Barrier, Expanding, Running and Skewed). Let’s examine them one by one.

All types of triangles Elliott Wave analysis

Horizontal Triangle

This pattern is also known as a contracting triangle. As you might guess from the name of this pattern, its lines are aimed towards each other. Each wave of this triangle is shorter than the previous one, which means wave (b) doesn’t break the beginning point of the wave (a), wave (c) doesn’t break the starting point of the wave (b) etc. On the next chart, you can see a triangle in the position of the fourth wave, so a five-wave decline happened right after the pattern.

Horizontal Triangle pattern Elliott wave

Barrier Triangle

The only difference from the contracting triangle is that the line B-D or A-C-E is horizontal. The other one goes towards a horizontal line, so a Barrier Triangle is a variation of the contracting pattern. You can find an example of this pattern on the chart below.

Barrier Triangle pattern Elliott wave

Expanding Triangle

This triangle is the trickiest one. It’s simply impossible to predict this pattern from the beginning, so we could count it only when the wave E finishes. Both lines of the pattern are directed in the opposite direction.  

Expanding Triangle pattern

Running Triangle

Sometimes, the wave B of a triangle could be longer than wave A, but all other waves are smaller from the one before. The next chart shows an example of a Running Triangle in the position of the fourth wave. As you can see, wave ((e)) of the pattern doesn’t reach the upper side of the triangle. This happens quite often, so we should always consider the structure of the wave E to predict its ending.

Running Triangle pattern wave theory

Skewed Triangle

If a very strong trend takes place, we could face a Skewed Triangle, its wave D is longer than wave B. So. It’s the only type of triangle, which has a direction towards the main trend. This pattern is rare and we should mark it as the last possible scenario. The following chart represents a Skewed Triangle, which pushed the price higher into the fifth wave.

Skewed Triangle pattern Elliott wave

Other examples: Ending of wave E

It’s possible for the wave E to break the A-C line of a triangle. If this happens, it’s important to wait for the price to come back into a range of the pattern. As you can see on the chart below, the pair tested the triangle’s lower side, but a subsequent pullback from it led to the beginning of the fifth wave.

examples Ending of wave E

Massive fifth wave

From time to time, the market could move pretty fast right after a triangle. The next chart shows that case. The ending of the wave ((iv)) as a triangle turned out to a huge rally in wave ((v)). As far as we know that a triangle forms prior to the final wave in an impulse, we should expect a correction after the rally. Note that there’s also a small triangle in wave (iv) of ((iii)).

Massive fifth wave

Two triangles

If an extension in the third wave takes place, it’s possible to wave two triangles in a row, which could be formed in a position of the fourth waves from different degrees. You can find an example of such a case on the last chart. Wave 4 of (3) is formed as a triangle, but right after the wave 5 of (3) the market developed another triangle in wave (4).

two triangles in a row

The Bottom Line

There’re a few deferent shapes of triangles. This pattern is the last correction in impulsive or corrective structures. We could count a triangle only when its structure is fully completed.

Double and Triple Threes are the trickiest wave patterns, which consist of zigzags, flats, triangles, double and triple zigzags. There’s no any rule related to order of these correction patterns, except a position of a triangle in these structures.

What’s a Double Three pattern?

Simply put, that’s a combination of three correction patterns. Let’s have a look at an example below:

Double Three Pattern

The main rules for Double Threes trading

  • Double Three consists of three waves, which are marked as W-X-Y
  • Wave W could be any correction pattern, except triangles
  • Waves X and Y could take the form of any correction pattern
  • Double Three is formed horizontally or with a low dip against the main trend
  • In most cases, Double Threes are not deep corrections.

We could count a correction as a Double Three only when the structure is almost over. In other words, it’s not possible to predict this pattern from the very beginning of a correction. So, if a structure, which fits the Double Three’s rules arrives, only then we could decide to mark this pattern.

It’s important to understand that when we have just finished wave X, there’re always a few ways to finish the correction. We could have an impulse so that the correction could take the form of a flat. If a long zigzag is formed instead, then the correction turns out to be a double zigzag. Finally, if we have just a small zigzag, as shown in the chart above, then we could consider the possibility to have a double three pattern.

Real Examples

A Double Three pattern from zigzags is shown on the chart below. As you can see, waves (w), (x) and (y) are zigzags, so it’s the easiest shape of this pattern. Note that wave (y) is much the same as wave (w), so the correction moves almost horizontally, which is the key point in the rules for Double Threes.

A Double Three pattern from zigzags on the chart

Another example is on the next chart. There’s a Double Three pattern with huge wave (x). Also, we could perfectly see the difference between a Double Three and a Double Zigzag. Wave (x) here is a Double Zigzag, so this wave has an upward direction. Wave ((iv)) has no direction, so we could mark it like a Double Three pattern as (w)-(x)-(y).

The Double Three pattern with huge wave

Let’s have a look at the chart below. There are two Double Threes in waves B and ((x)). Wave (y) of ((x)) is a flat pattern, which the trickiest part of the structure. Meanwhile, both Double Threes patterns have a horizontal direction (remember, that’s the guiding criterion of any Double Three).

There are two Double Threes in waves B and ((x))

Sometimes wave X could be far longer than the wave W. As you can see on the next chart, wave (x) ended below the starting point of the wave (w), but then an upward zigzag in wave (y) has arrived. Moreover, wave (a) of (x) is a leading diagonal that makes this count even more complicated. So, in the real-time wave counting, we could make a decision on a possible ending of the wave ((b)) as a Double Zigzag only after waves (i) and (ii) of ((c)).

Australian Dollar Japanese Yen ratio chart

What’s a Triple Three pattern?

This pattern is longer than Double Three, so it subdivides into five waves, which all move sideways against the main trend.

Triple Three patter

The main rules for Double Threes trading

  • Triple Three consists of five waves, which label as W-X-Y-X-Z
  • Waves W, X, and Y could be any correction pattern, except triangles
  • Second wave X and Z could take the form of any correction pattern
  • Triple Three is formed horizontally or with a low dip against the main trend
  • In most cases, Triple Threes are not deep corrections.

Triple Three is quite a rare pattern, so you should try to avoid counting it in real time. You can see an example of this pattern on the next chart, where wave ((b)) is a Triple Three. We could consider this structure as a Triple Zigzag only after wave (z). Actually, it works for all other correction patterns, so we should always wait until the full structure of correction arrives to make a decision on one or another wave count, which fits the rules the most.

Triple Three example on the chart

As you can guess from the title, this pattern consists of two zigzags and correction between them. This is the first complex correction pattern we’re going to examine.

Double Zigzags pattern

The main rules for Double Zigzags trading

  • Double Zigzags subdivide into three waves and labels as W, X, and Y.
  • Usually waves W and Y are zigzags.
  • Wave X could form any correction pattern.
  • Wave X is always smaller than wave W.
  • Wave Y is always longer than wave X.
  • In most cases, Double Zigzags are a deep correction in relation to the previous price movement.

It’s not easy to recognize a double zigzag in real time. Usually, this pattern forms when the first zigzag is far smaller from the expecting correction, so after a break, the second zigzag arrives. In other words, if the first zigzag isn’t enough to be a correction itself, the second zigzag takes place.

Duration of wave X

Usually, as shown in the chart below, wave X is longer than corrections inside waves W and Y. If a pattern forms in this shape, it’s pretty easy to label it. Remember, we can say that one or another pattern forms only when the whole structure ends. Until then, we should be careful.

Double zigzag with extended wave X

However, sometimes wave X of a double zigzag could be relatively small. In this case, we could count this part of a chart as a single zigzag with extended waves A or C (depending on waves relations because the third wave can’t be the shortest).

Also, if we have a possible count with the longest wave C (this example is on the right on the chart below), we should also consider an option with a developing impulse (in this case wave C turns out to be the third wave). So, it’s safer to have a double zigzag with long wave X (see the chart above), while a wave count with small wave X could also have some alternatives.

 Double zigzag patterns with small wave X

Real examples

Let’s have a look at the chart below. There’s a downward double zigzag with a triangle in wave ((x)) (we’re going to examine this pattern in the next articles). Waves (a) and (c) of waves ((w)) and ((y)) are impulses (sometimes we could face leading or ending diagonals as well). An impulse in wave (i) confirms the ending of the double zigzag.

 Double Zigzag real example

The next chart shows a double zigzag with an extended wave ((X)), so it’s easy to count two zigzags in the motive waves ((W)) and ((Y)), which both have longer waves (A). Also, note that an ending diagonal in wave (C) of ((Y)) highlights the ending of the whole pattern.

the example of double zigzag with an extended wave

Two more examples of a double zigzag are shown below. There’s a downward pattern with impulses in all motive waves. Also, there’s another double zigzag in wave (x) with a pretty rare combination of diagonals. An ending diagonal in wave ((C)) of (w) is the final wave of the first zigzag and the second one started by wave ((A)) of (y) as a leading diagonal.

Two examples of a double zigzag downward pattern with impulses in all motive waves

Triple zigzag: display and main trading rules

A pattern with three zigzags in a row calls a triple zigzag. Firstly, they're the main rules for this pattern:

  • Double Zigzags subdivide into five waves and labels as W, X, Y, XX, and Z.
  • Usually waves W, Y, and Z are zigzags.
  • Wave X could form any correction pattern, except triangles.
  • Wave XX could form any correction pattern.
  • Wave X is always smaller than wave W.
  • Wave Y is always longer than wave X.
  • Wave XX is always smaller than wave Y.
  • Wave Z is always longer than wave XX.
  • In most cases, Triple Zigzags are a deep correction in relation to the previous price movement.

As you can see, the main difference from Double Zigzags is that Triple Zigzags consist of five waves as well as impulses and diagonal. However, Triple Zigzags are corrective waves while impulses and diagonal are motive ones.

To be honest, this pattern is rare. Moreover, it’s pretty rare. In this case, we should avoid using this pattern in the real-time wave counting because in most cases we’ll be wrong sooner or later. If you think there’s a Triple Zigzag, the first thing you should do is to check if there’s another wave count possible. More often, a simpler wave count is available.

Triple zigzag pattern is rare

Real example

It’s pretty hard to find an example, but there’s one on the next chart. All motive waves here are zigzags. The first wave X is a zigzag and the second one is a double zigzag. Keep in mind, that the second corrective wave of a triple zigzag could be marked as X or XX.

Triple zigzag example

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