Weekly FX Recap: August 1-5

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of August 1st through August 5th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, July 31 

All Day AUD Bank Holiday

Monday, August 1st 

2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.9 versus 50.1 expected.

2:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.9 versus last 53.7.

2:15am USD FOMC Member Dudley said that, “Looking forward, I expect economic activity to expand at roughly a 2 percent annualized pace over the next 18 months, appreciably above that of the past three quarters. Over the remainder of this year, the economy should continue to get some lift from consumption and from a fiscal policy stance that remains mildly stimulative. Moreover, I anticipate that residential investment will rebound from its decline in the second quarter.” The currency rose.

2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.6 versus 48.8 expected.

All Day CHF Bank Holiday

8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 51.0 versus 51.6 expected. The currency fell. 

9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 48.2 versus 49.1 expected. The currency fell. 

All Day CAD Bank Holiday

3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.6 versus 53.1 expected. The currency rose.

Tuesday, August 2nd 

2:30am AUD Building Approvals -2.9% versus 0.9% expected. The currency rose. 

2:30am AUD Trade Balance -3.20B versus -2.00B expected. The currency rose. 

4:00am NZD Inflation Expectations 1.7% versus last 1.6%. The currency rose. 

5:30am AUD Cash Rate 1.50% versus 1.50% expected. The currency rose. 

5:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement noted that, “In Australia, recent data suggest that overall growth is continuing at a moderate pace, despite a very large decline in business investment. Other areas of domestic demand, as well as exports, have been expanding at a pace at or above trend. Labour market indicators continue to be somewhat mixed, but are consistent with a modest pace of expansion in employment in the near term.” The currency rose.

8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -84.0K versus -70.0K expected. The currency rose. 

9:30am GBP Construction PMI 45.9 versus 44.2 expected. The currency rose. 

1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.

1:30pm USD Personal Spending 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.

3:10pm NZD GDT Price Index 6.6% versus last 0.0%. The currency rose.

Wednesday, August 3rd 

2:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 51.7 versus 52.9 expected. 

9:30am GBP Services PMI 47.4 versus 47.4 expected. The currency fell. 

1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Payrolls 179K versus 171K expected. The currency rose.

3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.5 versus 56.0 expected. The currency rose. 

3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M versus -1.6M expected. The currency rose.

Thursday, August 4th 

2:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.1% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.

12:00pm GBP BOE Inflation Report, “The decision to leave the European Union marks a regime change. In the coming years, the UK will redefine its openness to the movement of goods, services, people and capital. Some of the adjustments to this new reality may prove difficult and many will take time. But the UK can handle change. It has one of the most flexible economies in the world. It benefits from a deep reservoir of human capital, world-class infrastructure and the rule of law. Its people are admired the world over for their strength under adversity.” The currency fell.

12:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-9-0 versus 0-9-0 expected. The currency fell. 

12:00pm GBP Monetary Policy Summary noted that, “Following the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union, the exchange rate has fallen and the outlook for growth in the short to medium term has weakened markedly. The fall in sterling is likely to push up on CPI inflation in the near term, hastening its return to the 2% target and probably causing it to rise above the target in the latter part of the MPC’s forecast period, before the exchange rate effect dissipates thereafter.” The currency fell.

12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.25% versus 0.25% expected. The currency fell. 

12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B versus 375B expected. The currency fell. 

12:04pm GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 6-0-3 versus 0-0-9 expected. The currency fell. 

12:30pm GBP BOE Governor Carney said that, . The currency fell.

1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 269K versus 265K expected. The currency rose. 

3:00pm USD Factory Orders -1.5% versus -1.8% expected. The currency rose.

Friday, August 5th 

2:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “Volatility in foreign exchange and other financial markets increased significantly around the time of the UK referendum. Despite that volatility, financial markets, including those in Australia, continued to function effectively. Volatility has since declined to more normal levels. Meanwhile, funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain low.” The currency fell.

7:00am EUR German Factory Orders -0.4% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell. 

8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 615B versus last 609B expected. The currency rose. 

8:30am GBP Halifax HPI -1.0% versus -0.1% expected. The currency fell.

1:30pm CAD Employment Change -31.2K versus 10.2K expected. The currency fell. 

1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -3.6B versus -2.6B expected. The currency fell.

1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 6.9% versus 6.9% expected. The currency fell. 

1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell. 

1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls 255K versus 180K expected. The currency fell. 

1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 4.9% versus 4.8% expected. The currency fell. 

3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 57.0 versus last 51.9 expected. The currency fell.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD: 

Forecast: Higher

Actual: Lower from a 1.11709 open to a 1.10542 close.

USD/JPY: 

Forecast: Mildly lower

Actual: Lower from a 102.274 open to 101.978 close.

GBP/USD: 

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.32209 open to a 1.30407 close.

AUD/USD: 

Forecast: Mildly lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.75889 open to 0.76110 close.

USD/CAD: 

Forecast: Mildly higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.30255 open to a 1.31742 close.

NZD/USD: 

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.71974 open to a 0.71351 close.