Forex technical analysis: GBPJPY pushes toward 100 hour MA

Last three tests found sellers

The GBPJPY has moved higher with increased late London buying in the GBPUSD and also with the modest rebound in the USDJPY over the last few minutes on Fed Lockhart's comments.

The move higher, moves the price to positive on the day (closed at 130.39) and also pushes the price closer to the 100 hour MA at 131.08. The high has reached 130.88 so far. 

The last three looks at the 100 hour MA has seen sellers lean against the level.  The price has moved lower (see blue lines in the chart above).  

As time goes by, the MA moves lower and the hurdle becomes easier to breach.   Trend line resistance has also been a resistance level the market has used to lean. It currently comes in at 131.32.  If the MA is tested, do not be surprised to hear the bell ring and the Pavlovian traders selling against the level. On a break, the trend line will be another hurdle but getting above one of the key levels works in favor of the bulls (as long as it remains above).

Where is risk now?

I would like to see the price stay above the 130.45 level. This is the 50% of the move up from the last swing low and also near highs from earlier in the day.