mardi 2 août 2016

Trades above 1.1200 for first time since Brexit day

The EURUSD has scratched it's way higher in trading today and in the process has extended above the 1.1200 level.  Once again the activity remains contained (50 pip trading range). 


The lows were set in the early Asian Pacific session when the price moved toward the low from Monday and the corrective low after Friday's surge on the weaker US GDP (at 1.1154 area). That area was also near the area defined by swing highs (and high closes) going back to the end of June (see yellow area in the chart above at 1.1153-59). Prior to the move above this area on Friday, the market had not had an hourly bar close above it since June 24th.  

Looking at the daily chart the price is moving toward the 100 day MA at the 1.1235 level. Just prior to the Brexit, traders used that MA as support. On the Brexit day, the price tumbled below the level.  ON the first test, I would expect that traders will lean against the level.  Before that level, keep an eye on the 1.1213-17 area. Back in July 2105 there was a swing high at 1.1217.  Then going forward, there were other swing levels at the area.  The high today was reached 1.1208 so far (see chart below). 


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