Forex technical analysis: EURUSD outside of 35 pip range. Now what?

You continue to dig....

When you have a 35 pips trading range for 46 hours (from Friday late morning) of trading, you start to look for a break (see prior post).  This EURUSD made a break (or so it seems).

So when the price of the EURUSD moved above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.1085 and the break was accompanied by momentum, buyers jumped on. That sent the price to a new day and week high at 1.1122.  That is the good news. The bad news is the range for the week is now 52 pips. Many are now asking, "Is that it?"

Well, we don't know yet....

What do we know?

1. We know the price is moving away from the 200 day MA at 1.1078. Bullish.
2. We know the price is moving away from the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 4 hour chart at 1.1077 and 1.1085. Bullish
3. The price also moved above the highs from Friday's correction and Monday at 1.11047. Bullish
4. The price is above the 50% of the move down from Friday's unemployment move at 1.11029. Bullish
5. The price is above the 38.2% of the move up from the low today at 1.11023. Bullish
6. The price failed on a move above the 100 hour MA at the 1.11125 level (currently). Bearish

Most of the action today says bullish but when you are still in such a narrow trading range still, that picture can change around quickly.  For example, if the price moves below 1.1102, reason 3, 4 and 5 above would lean more bearish.   That is a risk/bias defining level.  

Traders - looking for a move - a continuation of a move - like to see the technicals support the view  as the trade progresses.  It simply takes a lot of fear away, keeps the bias, and also helps to convince other traders that the directional move is the way to go.   It takes traders who buy (or sell) to push a price higher (or lower). 

So if the EURUSD is to go higher, holding above the 1.1102 area would be the most bullish scenario.   Move below, may not kill what was done today (although it easily could), but it will take bullishness away (3,, 4 and 5 from above) and muddy the waters for the pair.